I can't believe it took me this long to stumble across the work of Pepe Escobar, "The Roving Eye" for Asia Times Online, whose piece of August 30, 2001 --"Get Osama! Now!" -- feels less prophetic than a channeling of the still-alive-then Hunter Thompson.
Now, he's wandering Iraq and emerging with a report that I found surprising -- more than I likely should have. His sources tell him that the insurgency is developing into a more classic, and perhaps less cancerous form. (Remember, the former Viet Minh now host Mercedes=Benz factories).
The national liberation front
The major Iraqi resistance groups are not
in favor of targeting innocent Iraqi civilians.
Many groups have political liaisons who try to tell the world's media what they are fighting for.
Considering that American corporate media exclusively reproduce the Pentagon line, there's widespread suspicion - in the Middle East, Western Europe, Latin America, parts of Asia - of American media complicity in the occupation, incompetence, racism, or perhaps all of the above.
The antidote to the Iraqi militia inferno should be a united Sunni-Shi'ite political front. Former electricity minister Ayham al-Samarie told the Associated Press that at least two guerrilla groups - the Islamic Army in Iraq and the Army of Mujahideen - were ready to talk with the Jaafari government and eventually join the political process. The conditions though are explicit: a set date for the American withdrawal.
Against all odds, a national liberation front is emerging in Iraq. Washington hawks may see it coming, but they certainly don't want it. Many groups in this front have already met in Algiers. The front is opposed to the American occupation and permanent
Pentagon military bases; opposed to the privatization and corporate looting of the Iraqi economy; and opposed to the federation of Iraq, ie balkanization. Members of the front clearly see through the plan of fueling sectarianism to provoke an atmosphere of civil war, thus legitimizing the American presence. The George W Bush administration's obsession in selling the notion that Iraqis - or "anti-Iraqi forces", or "foreign militants" - are trying to start a civil war in the eastern flank of the Arab nation is as ludicrous as the myth it sells of the resistance as just a lunatic bunch of former Ba'athists and Wahhabis.
The Bush administration though is pulling no punches with Iraqification. It's a
Pandora's box: inside one will find the Battle of
Algiers, Vietnam, El Salvador, Colombia. All point to the same destination: civil war. This deadly litany could easily go on until 2020 when, in a brave new world of China emerging as the top economy, Sunni Arabs would finally convince themselves to perhaps strike a deal with Shi'ites
and Kurds so they can all profit together by selling billions of barrels of oil to the Chinese
oil majors. If, of course, there is any semblance of Iraq left at that point.
Thomas Friedman's nightmare. Wait for Pepe to replace him in the funny papers.
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Update: The UAE wire service Gulf News supplements this view in an interview with a general:
Major General Joseph Taluto said he could
understand why some ordinary people would take up arms against the US
military because "they're offended by our presence".
In an
interview with Gulf News, he said: "If a good, honest person feels
having all these Humvees driving on the road, having us moving people
out of the way, having us patrol the streets, having car bombs going
off, you can understand how they could [want to fight us]."
General
Taluto, head of the US 42nd Infantry Division which covers key trouble
spots, including Baquba and Samarra, also said some Iraqis not involved
in fighting did support insurgents who avoided hurting civilians.
He
said: "There is a sense of a good resistance, or an accepted
resistance. They say 'okay, if you shoot a coalition soldier, that's
okay, it's not a bad thing but you shouldn't kill other Iraqis.'"
However
General Taluto insisted the US and other foreign forces would not be
driven out of Iraq by violence. "If the goal is to have the coalition
leave, attacking them isn't the way," he said. "The way to make it
happen is to enter the political process cooperate and the coalition
will be less aggressive and less visible and eventually it'll go away."
His
comments come in stark contrast to the assertions of other top US
figures, who persist in claiming all insurgents are either Baathists or
Al Qaida terrorists.
It doesn't seem to occur to the (American?) reporter Phil Sands to ask the general why one set of foreign fighters is a cancer and the other can leave when it feels like and not before. And both seem less than clueful about how occupations can create their own, oppositional culture, with or without guns.
I make no claims to more than casual knowledge of how insurgencies grow and function, and have spent most of my "Iraq blogs" focused on the not-collateral damage (torture and bruised GI souls) than on whether the US is "winning." But I'm more inclined to listen to Seymour Hersh and Mark Danner, who covered the last such US wars, for guidance -- or even Pepe, who seems my age but speaks ftom beyond the Green Zone -- than to those who don't seem to have heard Einstein's definition of insanity.