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December 21, 2004



It's probably higher. The minimum possible number of civilian deaths is somewhat over 14,000 per Iraq body count. But Iraq body count uses a passive data collection system--a system notorious for undercounting events. The Lancet article giving a mean estimate of 98,000 excess deaths due to the invasion (if Falluja, an outlier with a particularly high death toll, is excluded from the calculation) uses active data collection but a cluster system, which also tends to undercount. The true number will probably never be known. Personally, I think one death, be it Iraqi, US-American, or other, is too high. But I guess I'm in the minority.

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